高等教育人口对城市化的影响研究

——来自中国287个地级及以上城市的经验证据

来源：中国社会科学网

【摘 要】文章基于1999～2015年中国287个地级及以上城市的面板数据，考察高等教育人口对城市化的影响。结果发现：（1）由于拥挤效应的存在，高等教育人口与城市化之间并非呈简单的正向线性关系。在小型、中型城市高等教育人口对城市化的直接影响为正，而在大型和特大型城市正影响明显降低；高等教育人口对城市化的间接效应均为正，但随着城市规模的扩大而不断降低。（2）与中西部地区城市相比，高等教育人口对城市化所产生负向的直接影响、正向的间接影响及其减弱的幅度在东部地区城市表现得更为突出。文章认为，应做好城市发展定位，采取优先鼓励高校毕业生进入小型和中型城市工作、严格控制大型和特大型城市的拥挤效应、合理分布高等教育资源等措施，以便充分发挥高等教育人口对城市化的正向作用。

【关键词】城市规模 拥挤效应 高等教育人口 城市化 面板数据

【作 者】周启良，江西外语外贸职业学院国际商务学院，副教授；范红忠，华中科技大学经济学院，教授。

A Study on the Effects of Higher Education 

Population on Urbanization:

Empirical Evidence from 287 Cities at and above the Prefecture Level in China

Zhou Qiliang Fan Hongzhong

Based on the panel data of 287 cities at and above the prefecture level in China during 1999-2015, this paper examines the effects of higher education population on urbanization. The results show that, (1) because of the congestion effects, it is not a simple positive linear relationship between higher education and urbanization. The direct effect of higher education population on urbanization is positive in small and medium-sized cities, but it is significantly reduced or even turns into negative in large and ultra-large cities. The indirect effect of higher education population on urbanization is positive, but it decreases with the expansion of city scale. (2) From the view of regional disparity, compared with the cities in the central and western regions, the effects are more prominent in the eastern cities. The paper urges policy initiatives to improve the positioning of urban development, encourage college graduates to work in small and medium-sized cities, control the congestion effects of large and ultra-large cities strictly, and distribute higher education resources rationally, in order to give full play to the positive role of higher education population on urbanization.