经济学院2023年宏观经济研讨班（十三）
讲座题目：Agree to Disagree: Measuring Hidden Dissents in FOMC Meetings
面向对象：（面向全院师生）
主讲嘉宾：杨子超（职称：副教授）
（单位：中南财经政法大学文澜学院）
学科方向：货币经济学、数字经济、加密货币市场
讲座时间：2023年9月21日（周四）19:30
讲座地点：经济学院402会议室
摘要：
Based on a record of dissents on FOMC votes and transcripts of the meetings from 1976 to 2017, we develop a deep learning model based on self-attention modules to create a measure of disagreement for each member in each meeting. While dissents are rare, we find that members often have reservations with the policy decision. The level of disagreement is mostly driven by current or predicted macroeconomic data at both the individual and meeting levels, while personal characteristics of the members matter only at the individual level. We also use our model to evaluate speeches made by members between meetings, and we find a weak correlation between the level of disagreement revealed in them and that of the following meeting. Finally, we find that the level of disagreement increases whenever monetary policy action is more aggressive.
嘉宾介绍：
中南财经政法大学文澜学院副教授。主要研究方向为数字货币，央行对外沟通。在Journal of Empirical Finance、 Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money、 Economics Letters等期刊发表论文。担任Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization、Economic Modeling、Contemporary Economic Policy等学术期刊匿名审稿人。
